How to use claiming races to "Catch a Risen Star”
You find some interesting things in claiming races this time of year
In the stock market, an IPO is often a polished, high-priced affair. But in horse racing, sometimes a “Blue Chip” prospect starts his season in the equivalent of a mid-cap value race to prove his fundamentals.
Look at Nearly, a current star within the Todd Pletcher stable. After his 5 ¾-length romp in the Holy Bull (G3) on January 31st, he skyrocketed to the top of the Derby conversation. But for the savvy investor, the “Buy” signal wasn’t the stakes win—it was the Optional Claiming entry he used as a launchpad.
The “Maiden Claiming” Hack
When a Hall of Fame trainer like Pletcher enters a high-pedigree colt like Nearly in an Optional Claiming race (as he did on Jan 2nd), he is essentially “buying” a win. He is looking for a high-probability start to build the horse’s mental maturity without the stress of a Grade 1 field.
Nearly entered that Jan 2nd race with a “price tag,” and he dominated it by five lengths. It was the ultimate “Alpha” moment for those watching the charts. It’s a reminder that the line between a “claimable” asset and a million-dollar Derby hopeful is often just a matter of timing.
Silent Tactic: The 12-1 Value Play
If you want a real “Value Stock” story, look at the new leader on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard: Silent Tactic.
Just last week, Silent Tactic pulled off a massive upset in the $1 million Southwest Stakes (G3). Like many great value investments, he was overlooked because of his “sector.” He started his career on the synthetic surface at Woodbine in Canada—a profile many dirt-purists ignore.
But look at his “Earnings Yield” now:
Initial Valuation: $500,000 (2yo Sale purchase)
TTM Gross: $594,422
Market Position: #1 on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
He has already earned back his entire “acquisition cost” in just four starts. Not bad at all. Just because it says “claiming race,” that doesn’t mean there can’t occasionally be some monster upside. In the same way that a big-money auction purchase can not live up to lofty expectations at the track, so too can the claiming level be a value-hunter’s paradise.
The Takeaway
The next Silent Tactic or Nearly might be running in a $50k Optional Claimer today, being valued by the general public as a “middle-class” athlete while carrying the DNA of a world-class performer. Its not all about running for the roses.
At HorseClaiming.com, we aim to do everything possible to generate profits as racehorse owners. And share our successes, failures, and learning experiences. There have been and will be a lot of each! But when you understand the tax benefits, the value of being connected to quality horsemen, and combining a business mindset with the pursuit of a fun, entertaining venture, you give yourself the best chance to win. In more ways than one.