What Aaron Rodgers has in common with a claiming horse in Oklahoma

Will Rogers (no "d") Downs was the site of a race yesterday which reminds us how well horse racing mixes with business and other sports events.

Photo by Adrian Curiel on Unsplash

Watching 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers walk off the field after a playoff-ending interception felt like watching a blue-chip stock hit a permanent “Sell” rating. In the NFL, the cliff is absolute. There is no lower league where an aging legend can go to compete against peers.

But yesterday at Will Rogers Downs in Oklahoma, a 10-year-old gelding named Absaroka did something Rodgers couldn’t in the Pittsburgh Steelers playoff loss, perhaps the final game of the Hall of Fame career of Mr. Rodgers: He won.

Tail of the Tape: horse racing ages vs. human ages

When you see a 10-year-old in the entries, you are looking at the biological equivalent of a 35 year-old human. Racehorses reach their prime athletic age between 3-5 years old. That’s why the Triple Crown races are for 3-year olds.

A horse still racing at age 10? This is where the physical “top-end” speed begins to trade for “experience and grit.”

Absaroka has 58 career starts. He has been running since the world looked very different. His first race was in 2019, prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. 76 months ago.

He’s earned more than $350,000 in his career. So about $4,600 in earnings per month. Since I’d estimate it costs $2,600-$3,000 a month to train a horse at WRD, that’s a nice monthly profit over 6+ years. The reason he is still winning—and why he represents a “Fighting Chance” for an owner—is the Claiming System.

There’s no “class drop” for Aaron Rodgers

The NFL forces Rodgers to play “Graded Stakes” every Sunday. If he can’t beat a 24-year-old cornerback, he loses.

The claiming box allowed Absaroka’s connections to perform a Class Drop. Instead of forcing him to fail against $50,000 athletes, his owner and trainer entered him for $13,000. He didn’t lose his talent; he just found a market where his talent was still the “Alpha.” This is the beauty of claiming: it protects the asset’s longevity by ensuring the horse never has to be “over-matched.”

The Downs and the downside

As inspiring a story as Absaroka’s 15th victory in 59 starts is, Will Rogers Downs (WRD) remains a front line in the legal battle for racing integrity.

• The Regulation: Oklahoma has been a primary challenger to HISA (Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority). While HISA is the federal law of the land, WRD has historically operated under the Oklahoma Racing Commission protocols during various legal injunctions.

• The Safety Signal: Even in a “patchwork” regulatory environment, a 10-year-old horse winning at a high level is the ultimate “Clean Bill of Health.” You cannot “trick” a horse into being a high-performer at age 10. That kind of longevity only comes from an owner who treats the horse as a multi-year asset, not a disposable bet.

The Investment Conclusion

Aaron Rodgers’ career is likely over because his “Market” has no room for a 42-year-old — though Philip Rivers tried to test that theory briefly last month. Absaroka’s career is thriving because the claiming game is a Liquid Market.

As an owner, you aren’t looking for the “Greatest of All Time.” Among quarterback’s that’s Tom Brady to many. And among horse racing fans, Secretariat is likely the first to come to mind. You are looking for the “Absaroka”—the asset that has been cared for, right-sized for its competition, and continues to pay dividends long after the “stars” have flamed out.